FUTUROLOGY OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXPORT STRATEGIES OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN IRAN

Abstract

Aim of study: In recent years, the consequences of climate change in the form of long droughts have affected the trade of agricultural products. In the present study, changes in the cropping patterns of agricultural products were assessed with a futuristic approach to increase the perspective, prepare for the future water crisis, and also to formulate appropriate strategic policies.

Area of study: This study was carried out in Iran.

Material and methods: To develop appropriate strategies for cultivating commercial agricultural products; the export of agricultural products was classified according to the type of water requirement into two groups of high water-demand products (13 items) and low water-demand products (4 items) during the period 2001-2017, and the effects of two factors of precipitation and temperature on the panel data models in each group were tested.

Main results: The estimation results of the models showed that the sensitivity of exporting the selected products to the precipitation variable in both groups was positive, and the intensity of this sensitivity in the high water-demand group (22%) was higher than that in the low water-demand group (18%). The export sensitivity to the temperature index was also evaluated as very high and positive in both models. The export behavior of selected agricultural products in both groups in the face of climatic tensions was inversely U-shaped.

Research highlights: According to the findings, the export of agricultural products in droughts shifted to items that were more resistant to climatic tensions. Therefore, changing the cropping pattern reduces the risk of agricultural trade in the event of future climate crises.